Explanations for rapid recovery of house prices
Higher mortgage rates over the past two years caused house prices to fall temporarily, but now they are rising. How can that be explained?
Read more Explanations for rapid recovery of house pricesYou are using an outdated browser. DNB.nl works best with:
Dutch households are increasingly taking out variable-rate mortgage loans or fixed-rate residential mortgage loans of up to one year, DNB data show. Conversely, mortgage loans with fixed-rate periods exceeding 10 years, which used to be popular for many years because of their low rates, are becoming less popular.
Published: 24 November 2022
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In September 2022, Dutch banks granted over €1.0 billion worth of new mortgage loans (excluding renegotiations) carrying variable interest rates or with fixed-rate periods of up to one year, up 7% compared to the previous month (see Chart 1). Compared to January 2022, the increase was 47%. Of the fixed-rate periods as we categorise them, this category accounts for the strongest percentage increase in the total value of new mortgage loans granted.
At De Nederlandsche Bank, we independently compile statistics on the Dutch financial sector and economy. This article is based on these statistics. More information on our statistics and all dashboards can be found on our Statistics homepage.
That said, the aggregate amount of new mortgage loans granted by Dutch banks – all fixed-rate periods combined – has fallen 16% since the start of this year, from €6.8 billion a month in January 2022 to €5.7 billion in September 2022 (see Chart 2). Year-on-year, the decline was 12%, from €6.5 billion in September 2021. In particular, the aggregate amount in mortgage loans granted for fixed-rate periods exceeding 10 years fell sharply. Mortgage lending in this category dropped from €4.0 billion in January 2022 to €2.4 billion in September 2022 (-41%).
Mortgage rates have been rising rapidly since early 2022, after years of decline. The very low interest rates in recent years have made it attractive for homebuyers to fix mortgage rates for longer periods. This assured them of years of low interest costs, even if market rates should start rising again. With interest rates now rising rapidly, new homebuyers are locking in interest rates for a shorter period, generally also at lower rates than for a long fixed-rate period.
By mid-2022, Dutch financial institutions together had granted €783 billion in mortgage loans to Dutch households. A small portion of mortgage loans to Dutch households was accounted for by foreign mortgage lenders. The high mortgage debts in the Netherlands are the subject of a previous article we published on our website.
To make key mortgage loan data more accessible, we have recently launched a residential mortgages dashboard. It combines and visualises various data related to bank mortgage lending rates and the size and distribution of mortgage loans. The dashboard aims to makes data more meaningful and user-friendly.
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Table 5.2.7.1: MFI households deposits and loans, interest rates, adjusted for breaks (Month)
Table 5.2.7.2: MFI households deposits and loans, volumes (Month)
Higher mortgage rates over the past two years caused house prices to fall temporarily, but now they are rising. How can that be explained?
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