The economic and financial stability repercussions of nature degradation for the Netherlands: Exploring scenarios with transition shocks

This study is a first exploration of the potential economic and financial stability impacts of a set of tail-event scenarios that reflect strong measures taken suddenly in response to nature degradation. We consider four transition risk scenarios, for which we find varying degrees of materiality. We do not focus on physical risk scenarios, with the exception of a scenario of pollination decline, due to methodological limitations. This study is a first, methodological contribution to the analysis of the impact of nature degradation on economic developments and financial stability. To draw policy conclusions from this analysis would require further work.